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Emerging market countries face a volatile 2024 as elections from Mexico to Indonesia — and a highly consequential presidential election in the US — look set to influence their future economic performance, adding to the uncertainties for investors in risky assets.
新兴市场国家将在2024年面临动荡不安的局面，因为从墨西哥到印度尼西亚的大选，以及美国影响重大的总统选举，都将影响这些国家未来的经济表现，从而给风险资产投资者带来更多不确定性。
Up to 2bn people could ultimately vote in elections by the end of this year. And electoral contests in emerging market countries India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa are expected to inject volatility into investors’ portfolios.
到今年年底，最终可能有多达20亿人参加选举投票。新兴市场国家印度、印度尼西亚、墨西哥和南非的选举竞争预计将给投资者的投资组合带来波动。
Historically, as lawmakers get anxious ahead of elections, they tend to relax their fiscal discipline to win over voters. But this pre-election policy shift can hurt the creditworthiness of emerging market countries, as well as that of state-owned enterprises.
从历史上看，随着立法者在选举前感到焦虑，他们往往会放松财政纪律，以赢得选民的支持。但这种选举前的政策转变可能会损害新兴市场国家以及国有企业的信用。
In addition, if election outcomes are deemed contentious, civil unrest among the population can dent countries’ gross domestic product.
此外，如果选举结果被认为有争议，国内的动荡也会影响各国的国内生产总值(GDP)。
This year’s elections come as emerging market equities have broadly fallen out of favour with investors. The prolonged outperformance of US equities — which have proved practically unbeatable by emerging markets since 2012 — has led to “a massive under-allocation of global investors into emerging market equities,” JPMorgan said, in a January report.
今年的选举正值新兴市场股票普遍失宠之际。摩根大通(JPMorgan)在1月份的一份报告中称，美国股市长期表现优异（自2012年以来新兴市场几乎无法与之竞争），导致“全球投资者对新兴市场股票的配置严重不足”。
Global investors currently have only about 5.6 per cent of their share portfolios in emerging markets, versus a 20-year average of about 8.4 per cent, the bank noted. If investors repositioned themselves to that 8.4 per cent average, about $776bn would flood into emerging markets funds, JPMorgan calculated.
该行指出，目前新兴市场股票在全球投资者的投资组合仅占约5.6%，而20年的平均比例约为8.4%。根据摩根大通的计算，如果投资者重置到8.4%的平均水平，将有约7760亿美元涌入新兴市场基金。
There has been little sign of such a widespread re-evaluation: the stock markets of China and Hong Kong are down by 30 and 29 per cent respectively over the past 12 months.
目前几乎没有迹象表明投资者大规模重新评估新兴市场：过去12个月，中国和香港股市分别下跌30%和29%。
However, this year’s election cycle has already provided a lift for one of the biggest emerging market stocks. In mid-January, when Taiwanese voters handed the pro-western Democratic Progressive party an unprecedented third presidential term, it also represented a victory for shareholders in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which is the largest holding in the MSCI and S&P indices for emerging markets. TSMC’s shares are up 12 per cent so far in 2024, to a two-year high, following the election.
然而，今年的选举周期已经为最大的新兴市场股票之一带来了提振。1月中旬，台湾选民让亲西方的民进党(Democratic Progressive part)史无前例的获得三连任，这也代表着台积电(TSMC)股东的胜利，该公司是MSCI和标准普尔新兴市场指数的最大持股。大选结束后，台积电的股价在2024年迄今为止上涨了12%，创下两年来的新高。
In bond markets, sentiment towards emerging markets has been more positive across the board. Emerging market corporate bonds returned 8 per cent in 2023 and government debt topped 10 per cent, JPMorgan pointed out. And there were no sovereign defaults last year, the bank added.
在债券市场，对新兴市场的情绪全面向好。摩根大通指出，新兴市场公司债券在2023年的回报率为8%，国债回报率高达10%。摩根大通补充说，去年没有发生主权违约事件。
But this year’s elections could stress these benign conditions.
但今年的大选可能会给这些有利条件带来压力。
“Emerging markets already struggling with rising government debt levels could see a worsening debt situation, especially if pre-election spending on public sector wages, social grants, lower tariffs are accelerated,” warns Thea Fourie, head of Sub-Saharan Africa research at S&P.
标普撒哈拉以南非洲研究主管西娅•福里(Thea Fourie)警告说：“已经在政府债务水平上升的困境中挣扎的新兴市场可能会看到债务状况恶化，尤其是如果选举前公共部门工资、社会补助、降低关税等方面的支出加快的话。
South Africa, for example, has struggled to suspend its grants to citizens for “social relief of distress” ahead of the highly-contested May 2024 elections, she says.
她说，例如，南非在竞争激烈的2024年5月大选之前一直在努力暂停向公民发放“社会救济”。
Shamaila Khan, head of fixed-income for emerging markets and Asia Pacific at UBS Asset Management agrees that “it is very natural, before elections, to have a little bit more spending”. As a result “we would expect some level of volatility,” she explains.
瑞银资产管理公司(UBS Asset Management)新兴市场和亚太地区固定收益主管沙迈拉•汗(Shamaila Khan)也认为，“在选举之前，增加一些开支是很自然的”。因此，“我们预计会出现一定程度的波动，”她解释说。
In the case of India, Narendra Modi’s government recently promised record spending for infrastructure projects. Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party is widely expected to win a third five-year term in office in a lower house election likely to take place in April and May.
在印度，纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)政府最近承诺在基础设施项目上投入创纪录的资金。人们普遍预计，莫迪领导的印度民族主义党印度人民党将在可能于4月和5月举行的下议院选举中赢得第三个五年任期。
Before that, in Indonesia, a general election will take place on February 14. Former army general Prabowo Subianto is leading in the polls, but has said he wants to maintain the current administration’s policies — reassurances that the business community has applauded.
在此之前，印度尼西亚将于2月14日举行大选。前陆军将军普拉博沃•苏比安托(Prabowo Subianto)在民调中遥遥领先，但他表示希望维持现政府的政策——商界对此表示赞赏。
We do think this year is very attractive for fixed income. And, within fixed-income, emerging markets look very attractive from a valuation and technical perspective.
我们确实认为今年对固定收益非常有吸引力。在固定收益领域，新兴市场从估值和技术角度看都非常有吸引力。
However, even when there is pre-election volatility, it can also present opportunities for “tremendous value generation.” For example, left-leaning candidates won presidential elections recently in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Mexico. Initially, their policies spooked markets but, in all of these countries, “the institutions were strong enough that the leaders who took office actually pursued very market-friendly policies,” Khan observes, “and those same countries became market favourites.”
然而，即使选举前出现波动，也可能带来“巨大价值创造”的机会。例如，左翼候选人最近在巴西、秘鲁、哥伦比亚和墨西哥的总统选举中获胜。起初，他们的政策让市场感到恐慌，但所有这些国家的“机构足够强大，上台的领导人实际上推行了非常有利于市场的政策，”汗观察到，“这些国家也成为了市场的宠儿。”
Overall, she argues that “it is very hard to compete with the US equity market . . . but we do think this year is very attractive for fixed income. And, within fixed-income, emerging markets look very attractive from a valuation and technical perspective.”
总体而言，她认为“很难与美国股市竞争......但我们确实认为今年对固定收益非常有吸引力。在固定收益市场中，新兴市场从估值和技术角度看都非常有吸引力。”
However, in terms of impact, the biggest election for emerging markets investors this year is not in any of these countries — it is the likely presidential election rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
然而，就影响而言，今年对新兴市场投资者最重大的选举并不在这些国家中的任何一个，而在于乔•拜登和唐纳德•特朗普可能再次对决。
If Trump re-enters the White House and reignites trade wars, new tariffs would hit commodity-producing emerging market countries the hardest, says Marie Diron, a managing director at Moody’s.
穆迪(Moody’s)董事总经理玛丽•迪隆(Marie Diron)表示，如果特朗普再次入主白宫并重新引发贸易战，新关税将对生产大宗商品的新兴市场国家造成最严重的打击。
Conversely, countries with large domestic economies — such as Brazil and South Africa — could fare better with a change in the US, she suggests.
她认为，与此相反，巴西和南非等国内经济规模较大的国家可能会因美国的变化而受益。
“When there is a lower confidence, in general, in the future of the world environment, then emerging markets tend to be affected,” Diron says, and investment timing becomes key. For emerging economies, “the election, itself, is rarely really a point at which we see a material credit impact, because we do want to see policies fully designed and started to get implemented to have more confidence in implications.”
迪隆说：“当人们对未来世界环境的信心普遍降低时，新兴市场往往会受到影响，”然后投资时机就成了关键。对于新兴经济体来说，“大选本身很少会对我们的信贷产生实质性影响，因为我们确实希望看到政策得到充分设计并开始实施，从而对其影响更有信心”。